Honduras

Honduras has a 1.9% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, placing it in the low risk category. The level is supported by a history of political crisis and violence, including the 2009 coup, post-election unrest in 2017, persistent insecurity, and limited institutional capacity. These factors can make disputes harder to contain, although Honduras has not experienced a sustained civil war in recent decades.

Recent reporting supplied for this assessment contains no specific escalation involving the Honduran state, political forces, gangs, or neighbouring countries. Honduras’s gangs and organised-crime networks remain relevant domestic security actors, but criminal violence alone does not constitute a new armed conflict unless it develops into sustained organised fighting.

The largest uncertainty is whether political polarisation, institutional stress, or organised-crime violence could combine into coordinated armed confrontation. Risk would rise with sustained clashes involving state forces and organised domestic groups, or widespread politically motivated violence; it would fall with durable political accommodation, effective security-sector control, and containment of criminal networks.