Panama

Panama faces a 0.4% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its territory, a minimal risk. The country has had no sustained internal armed conflict since the United States invaded in 1989, and the Panamanian military was abolished in 1990. Civilian institutions, economic capacity, and the Canal’s international importance provide strong barriers to domestic rebellion or interstate attack.

The principal current signal is a Polymarket contract asking whether the United States will take the Panama Canal before 2027, priced at 3.6% on 1 September, with 166,382 in volume and 122 days until resolution. This is a political and strategic contingency rather than evidence of an armed attack; no specific recent reporting supplied indicates fighting or mobilisation on Panamanian territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether a severe breakdown in relations over the Canal could produce coercive action involving the United States or destabilise domestic politics. Risk would rise most clearly with confirmed military deployments, violent clashes involving Panamanian state forces, or organised armed mobilisation; continued civilian control, institutional functioning, and peaceful Canal operations would support the minimal level.