Chile

Chile’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 0.4%, representing a minimal risk. The country has comparatively strong state capacity, established democratic institutions, and no recent history of civil war or sustained insurgency. Although the 1973 coup and subsequent military rule show that severe political breakdown is possible, those events remain distant from present conditions.

Recent reporting provides no indication of armed mobilisation, insurgent activity, military rupture, or interstate hostility involving Chilean territory. The only supplied report, dated around 31 August 2026, concerns Chilean tennis player Alejandro Tabilo’s upcoming US Open match against Australia’s Alexei Popyrin, rather than a security development. No prediction market is available for Chile.

The main uncertainty is whether a severe political or social crisis could overwhelm Chile’s institutions and produce sustained armed violence, rather than protests or short-lived unrest. Risk would rise with an organised armed group, military intervention, or cross-border attack reaching Chile; it would remain lower if political disputes continue to be managed through elections, courts, policing, and civilian control of the armed forces.