Venezuela

Venezuela faces a 9.5% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, representing a high risk. Long-running institutional weakness, severe economic disruption, political polarisation, and a history of unrest and coercive confrontation leave the country vulnerable to renewed domestic violence or an external escalation reaching its territory.

Recent reporting describes a major change in the security environment: the United States captured President Nicolás Maduro in January and now seeks long-term influence over Venezuela’s oil sector. Washington and Venezuelan authorities are also associated with proposed agreements expanding Chevron’s operations in two heavy-oil fields. The January episode is already an existing event, not a new onset, but continued foreign dominance and contested resource control could create fresh confrontation involving Venezuelan political or armed actors.

The largest uncertainty is whether the post-Maduro order consolidates or faces organised resistance, elite fragmentation, or foreign confrontation. Risk would rise most clearly with armed opposition to the new authorities, attacks on foreign personnel or oil infrastructure, or a renewed cross-border military exchange; it would fall with a durable political settlement and orderly security transition.