Ecuador

Ecuador faces a 2.9% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, a low risk. The country has experienced a sharp rise in organised-crime violence, weak state control in some areas, prison unrest, and armed confrontations involving criminal groups. These conditions create persistent exposure, although Ecuador retains functioning national institutions and security forces capable of mounting coordinated responses.

Recent reporting highlights continued lethal violence in Guayaquil, where an armed attack on 31 August killed three people and injured one. Ecuador, Colombia, and the United States are also preparing joint military operations near the Ecuador-Colombia border, potentially increasing pressure on armed networks but also creating scope for escalation or retaliation. No prediction market is available for Ecuador.

The principal uncertainty is whether criminal violence remains fragmented and contained within the existing security crisis or develops into sustained, organised fighting that challenges state authority across territory. A major armed-group offensive, territorial seizure, or cross-border incident reaching Ecuador would raise risk; effective joint operations, arrests, and disruption of criminal command structures would lower it.