Argentina

The live 12-month probability is 0.8%, representing a minimal risk of a new armed conflict on Argentine territory. Argentina’s long-run profile supports this low level: it has avoided civil war and interstate war for decades, maintains consolidated electoral institutions, and possesses substantial state capacity. Its history includes the 1976 military coup and subsequent Dirty War, but those episodes are not ongoing and do not indicate a current conflict trajectory.

Recent reporting supplied for review contains no specific development indicating mobilisation by domestic armed groups, military intervention in politics, or a credible external threat to Argentine territory. The principal relevant actors are the Argentine government, security forces, political opposition, and neighbouring states; none is identified here as preparing sustained armed violence. No prediction market is available for Argentina.

The largest uncertainty is whether severe economic or political disruption could produce organised violence that exceeds normal protest and policing. Risk would rise most clearly with a military rupture, sustained armed activity by an organised domestic faction, or a cross-border attack reaching Argentina; it would remain lower if political disputes continue to be managed through elections, courts, and civilian security institutions.