Paraguay

The live 12-month probability is 0.6%, making Paraguay a minimal risk. The country has strong relevant buffers, including a relatively capable state, limited recent political violence, and no history of nationwide armed conflict since the 1989 end of Alfredo Stroessner’s dictatorship. Past instability, including the 2012 presidential removal, has generally remained political rather than developing into sustained armed confrontation.

Recent reporting reviewed concerns the Rally of Paraguay rather than security deterioration. On 30 August, French driver Sébastien Ogier criticised tyre quality after a suspension failure, and separate coverage reported his public dispute with FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem and subsequent apology. No state, neighbouring, or armed-group actor is reported to be mobilising against Paraguay or conducting attacks on its territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether isolated political or criminal violence could link up with Paraguay’s residual insurgent threat, particularly the Paraguayan People’s Army in the north. Risk would rise with coordinated attacks, territorial control, or armed mobilisation by domestic factions; it would remain lower if political disputes stay within constitutional channels and existing security operations contain insurgent and criminal networks.