Guyana

The 12-month probability of a new armed conflict on Guyana’s territory is 0.3%, a minimal risk. Guyana benefits from functioning state institutions, a small but capable security apparatus, and no recent history of civil war, insurgency, or sustained political violence. Its main long-run vulnerability is the unresolved territorial claim by Venezuela over the Essequibo region, which gives interstate tensions a persistent potential flashpoint.

Recent reporting provides no verified indication of fighting, mobilisation leading directly to an attack, or an armed domestic challenge inside Guyana. The principal external actor is Venezuela; Guyana’s government and security forces remain the relevant national actors, while international diplomacy and legal processes continue to frame the dispute rather than armed confrontation.

The largest uncertainty is whether political pressure in Venezuela could produce a sudden coercive move against Guyana or a miscalculation around the border and offshore energy interests. Risk would rise most clearly with an actual cross-border incursion, attack, or sustained military deployment into Guyanese territory; continued diplomatic management, restraint by Caracas, and the absence of organised domestic armed groups would support the current minimal level.