Brazil

Brazil has a 2.9% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, representing a low risk. Its large economy, capable state institutions, federal security apparatus, and long absence of nationwide civil war or interstate attack on its territory constrain the likelihood of a new conflict. Brazil has nevertheless experienced episodes of political violence, rebellions, military rule, and persistent organized-crime conflict, leaving some channels for localized escalation.

Recent reporting reviewed provides no specific indication of an imminent nationwide insurgency, coup, invasion, or sustained armed confrontation between major domestic actors. The principal potential challengers are criminal organizations and armed prison-linked networks, while federal and state authorities retain substantial resources and legitimacy. No prediction-market signal is available for Brazil.

The largest uncertainty is whether severe political polarization, institutional confrontation, or an exceptional security crisis could connect localized violence to sustained armed mobilization. Risk would rise with coordinated attacks across states, defections or politicization within the security forces, or organized armed resistance to federal authority; it would fall with continued institutional dispute resolution and effective containment of criminal groups.