Peru

Peru faces a 2.2% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset, a low risk. Its exposure is supported by a history of insurgency, political violence, weak institutional trust, uneven state presence, and recurring unrest, although its economy, security institutions, and established national political system provide substantial resilience.

Recent reporting supplies no clear indication of an organised armed actor preparing to launch sustained violence on Peruvian territory. The principal relevant actors are the national government, security forces, opposition movements, and local protest networks; Peru’s neighbours do not presently appear to be pursuing an armed confrontation with it.

The largest uncertainty is whether severe political or social unrest could become organised and militarised, particularly in regions where state authority is weaker. Risk would rise with coordinated attacks, insurgent mobilisation, or sustained clashes involving armed groups; it would fall with durable political accommodation, effective policing, and continued containment of protest within non-insurgent forms.