Suriname

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Suriname is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. Suriname’s small population, limited military capacity, and generally functioning political institutions constrain the likelihood of sustained internal or interstate violence. Its main historical exceptions—the 1980 military coup and the 1986–1992 Interior War—show that political rupture and armed mobilisation have occurred, but neither has become a persistent feature of contemporary national life.

Recent reporting provides no evidence of an active mobilisation, cross-border confrontation, or escalating dispute involving Suriname. The available item is a historical reference to a DAF YP-408 during the 1980 coup, rather than a current security development. No prediction market is available; principal relevant actors remain the Surinamese state, political institutions, and any potential domestic challengers.

The largest uncertainty is whether severe political or economic stress could again produce military intervention or organised rebellion. Risk would rise with a coup attempt, sustained armed protests, insurgent organisation, or a border incident reaching Surinamese territory; continued civilian political competition and the absence of reported armed mobilisation would support the minimal assessment.