Sweden

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on Swedish territory is 0.3%, representing a minimal risk. Sweden has strong institutions, substantial economic and defence capacity, and a long period without war or sustained internal armed conflict. These factors provide significant resilience against both domestic violence and external attack.

Recent reporting shows Sweden strengthening cooperation with France and NATO partners as concern about Russia’s war and regional security grows. The reported Gripen and naval deployments concern patrols supporting Finland’s border with Russia, while the frigate agreement is a defence-industrial and maritime cooperation measure; neither report describes fighting on Swedish territory. The principal external concern is Russia, with Finland, France, and NATO acting as partners.

The main uncertainty is whether wider confrontation involving Russia could expand into the Baltic or Nordic region, or whether isolated sabotage and extremist violence could develop into sustained armed conflict. A direct attack on Sweden, repeated armed incidents inside the country, or a major NATO-Russia escalation would raise risk; continued deterrence, allied coordination, and the absence of organised domestic combat would lower it.