Estonia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Estonia is 0.3%, a minimal risk. Estonia’s strong institutions, capable economy, cohesive state, and NATO membership provide substantial deterrence and crisis-management capacity. Its experience of wartime occupation and Soviet rule remains relevant, but the country has not experienced sustained internal armed conflict since restoring independence.

Recent reporting shows heightened exposure to spillover from Russia’s war against Ukraine. On 1 September, drones associated with attacks near Russia’s Leningrad region approached or briefly entered Estonian airspace, prompting warnings and the scrambling of NATO aircraft operating from Ämari; reports said no drone landed in Estonia. Russian-linked cyber activity also reportedly targeted seven Estonian government and port-related portals ahead of a parliamentary vote.

The largest uncertainty is whether repeated airspace or cyber incidents remain accidental and below the threshold of armed attack, or become deliberate and attributable action by Russia or affiliated groups. A confirmed strike causing casualties or significant damage on Estonian territory would raise risk most clearly; continued interception, NATO coordination, and contained incidents would support the minimal level.