Lithuania

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Lithuania is 0.3%, representing a minimal risk. Lithuania has strong democratic institutions, substantial economic capacity, and NATO and EU membership. Its post-independence history has been overwhelmingly peaceful, while the 1991 Soviet troop withdrawal marked the end of foreign military presence rather than a continuing domestic conflict.

Recent reporting shows Lithuania’s ruling parties pledging to maintain military spending at 5.0% of GDP, and President Gitanas Nausėda expressing confidence that US forces will return. These developments reinforce deterrence involving Lithuania, NATO allies, and Russia. Reports of funeral wreaths placed outside defence-industry offices are a hostile and politically charged signal, but do not by themselves indicate armed mobilisation or an imminent attack.

The main uncertainty is whether wider Russia-NATO tensions could produce an unexpected incident affecting Lithuanian territory, particularly around the Baltic region or Kaliningrad. Risk would rise most clearly after a confirmed cross-border attack, sustained armed sabotage, or a serious breakdown in NATO military coordination; it would lower with continued allied deployments and implementation of Lithuania’s defence-spending commitments.