Ireland

Ireland faces a 0.2% 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on its own territory, a minimal risk. The country has strong institutions, high economic capacity, and no recent history of sustained armed violence within the Republic. The Good Friday Agreement and the long-standing peace process have sharply reduced the likelihood of a return to organised conflict.

Recent reporting concerns a young girl found seriously injured beside a dead man at a home in Northern Ireland, with a man arrested. Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom, so this is not an armed-conflict onset on Ireland’s territory; the report currently describes a criminal investigation rather than organised political violence. No prediction market for Ireland was identified.

The largest uncertainty is whether dissident republican or loyalist activity could escalate into sustained armed violence and spill across the border. Risk would rise with coordinated attacks, organised mobilisation, or renewed communal violence inside the Republic; it would fall further with continued effective policing, cross-border cooperation, and adherence to the peace settlement.