Latvia

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on Latvian territory is 0.3%, a minimal risk. Latvia has strong institutions, substantial economic capacity, and NATO membership, while its post-independence experience has not included civil war, insurgency, or interstate fighting on its territory. These factors provide significant deterrence and crisis-management capacity.

Recent reporting shows heightened exposure to spillover from Russia’s war against Ukraine. On 1 September, Latvia and Estonia issued airspace warnings after drones associated with the war approached their borders; Latvian authorities also restricted activity near the eastern frontier as NATO aircraft responded. Russia, Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, and NATO are the principal actors in this wider security environment, but no armed attack on Latvia is reported.

The largest uncertainty is whether an incident involving drones, missiles, airspace, or critical infrastructure could be misdirected or deliberately escalated. Risk would rise most clearly with a confirmed strike, sustained incursion, or armed confrontation involving Russian and Latvian or NATO forces on Latvian territory; it would remain lower if border incidents are contained through monitoring, attribution, and allied deterrence.