Iceland

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Iceland is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. Iceland has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coup-related violence, or interstate fighting on its territory. Strong democratic institutions, high state capacity, social stability, and the absence of a standing army further reduce the likelihood that political disputes become sustained armed violence.

Recent reporting identifies no armed confrontation involving Icelandic authorities, domestic groups, or foreign forces on Icelandic territory. The principal security framework is NATO, supported by Iceland’s cooperation with allied states and its strategically important North Atlantic location; these arrangements provide deterrence while also making external military activity the most relevant pathway to a new onset.

The largest uncertainty is whether a major geopolitical crisis in the North Atlantic could produce an attack or coercive escalation reaching Iceland itself. Risk would rise most clearly after an actual armed attack, attempted occupation, or sustained violent mobilisation inside Iceland; continued institutional stability, peaceful dispute resolution, and effective allied deterrence would support the minimal-risk assessment.