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Silfio country intelligence · OMN
Oman
0.9% annual probability
Population
5.49M
GDP
$109.6B
Currency
OMR
Capital
Muscat
Land area
309.5K km²
Official languages
Arabic
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Oman is 0.9%, representing a minimal risk. Oman has no current internal war, strong state capacity, and generally effective institutions. Its last major internal conflict, the Dhofar insurgency, ended in 1975, while its geography, wealth, and security partnerships have supported domestic stability.
Recent reporting supplied contains no specific armed incident on Omani territory. The main current external concern is possible Iranian targeting: Polymarket prices a partial-scope question on Iran targeting Oman by 30 September at 20.5%, compared with 8.5% by 15 September and 0.7% by 31 August. These markets indicate concern about a discrete attack, but targeting would not automatically constitute a sustained new armed conflict.
The largest uncertainty is whether regional confrontation involving Iran, Israel, or Gulf states could reach Oman despite Muscat’s traditionally pragmatic diplomacy and mediating role. Risk would rise most clearly after a confirmed cross-border attack or sustained domestic armed violence; it would be lower if regional tensions remain offshore and Oman continues to preserve working channels with competing actors.
Strategic reasoning
- Oman’s long period without major internal armed conflict, capable security institutions, and comparatively cohesive state make sustained rebellion or civil war unlikely within the period.
- Regional escalation is the principal external pathway, particularly if Iran or another actor attacks Omani territory. Such an event would be more significant than military activity involving Oman abroad, because the event definition requires violence on Oman’s own territory.
- Oman’s diplomatic posture and history of mediation provide a stabilising channel, although they cannot fully eliminate the risk of spillover from conflicts elsewhere in the Gulf.
Critical indicators
- On 1 September 2026, Polymarket assigned a 20.5% implied probability to Iran targeting Oman by 30 September, with 26,325 in volume; the market is partial-scope and concerns targeting rather than necessarily a new armed conflict.
- A separate Polymarket contract priced Iran targeting Oman by 15 September at 8.5%, with 1,199 in volume, while the 31 August contract stood at 0.7% with 3,498 in volume. These prices identify a near-term external escalation concern, not evidence of fighting already underway in Oman.
Probability trend
How the Oman estimate has moved
Probability0.9%0.9%0.8%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Date
Regional context
Oman compared with its neighbours and region
Oman ranks number 114 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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