United Arab Emirates

The 12-month probability is 1.6%, representing a low risk. The UAE’s substantial economic capacity, strong state institutions, capable security services, and longstanding ability to deter domestic challengers support this assessment. Its geography and diplomatic partnerships have generally insulated the federation from sustained conflict, although its role in regional and overseas security issues creates exposure to retaliation.

Recent reporting shows direct Iranian military activity connected to the US-Iran confrontation, including drone operations involving Al Minhad Air Base and the interception of an Iranian drone over UAE territorial waters on 31 August. Iran, the United States, and the UAE are the principal actors; the UAE has signalled that it will defend its territory while seeking to prevent its airspace from being used for attacks on Iran.

The largest uncertainty is whether these incidents remain limited or become repeated strikes causing sustained armed violence on Emirati territory. Further Iranian attacks on UAE bases, cities, infrastructure, or shipping would raise risk; a cessation of US-Iran hostilities and continued UAE restraint and interception would lower it. Prediction markets separately imply an 89.0–92.0% chance of Iran targeting the UAE by mid-to-late September, on partial scopes.