Kosovo

The live 12-month probability is 1.2%, classified as a low risk. Kosovo’s risk is supported by the legacy of the 1998–99 war, unresolved status disputes with Serbia, limited institutional capacity, and persistent ethnic and political divisions, particularly in the Serb-majority north. These factors preserve a pathway to renewed armed violence, although the country has experienced prolonged periods without a new conflict onset.

Recent reporting provides no specific additional escalation event to highlight. The principal actors remain Kosovo’s institutions and security forces, Serbia, NATO’s KFOR mission, and Serb political and community networks in northern Kosovo. KFOR’s presence and international diplomatic engagement continue to constrain the ability of local disputes to develop into sustained fighting on Kosovo’s territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether a future confrontation in northern municipalities, or a breakdown in Kosovo–Serbia crisis management, could overcome international deterrence. Risk would rise through organised armed attacks, casualties involving Kosovo or Serbian-linked forces, or a major KFOR–local confrontation; it would fall through durable implementation of practical Kosovo–Serbia arrangements and continued restraint by armed and political actors.