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Silfio country intelligence · CPV
Cape Verde
0.3% annual probability
Population
527.33K
GDP
$3.06B
Currency
CVE
Capital
Praia
Land area
4.03K km²
Official languages
Portuguese
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Cape Verde is 0.3%, representing a minimal risk. The country has maintained domestic peace since independence in 1975, has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coup-related violence, or interstate attack, and possesses relatively durable democratic institutions.
Recent reporting provides no specific indication of mobilisation by domestic armed groups, military breakdown, or hostile foreign action reaching Cape Verdean territory. The country’s principal stabilising actors are its elected government, security services, and established political institutions; no neighbouring state or organised armed group is currently identified as preparing violence there.
The largest uncertainty is the possibility of an unexpected political or security shock, including severe institutional disruption or externally linked violence. Risk would rise with sustained armed clashes, a coup accompanied by organised resistance, or an attack on Cape Verdean territory; continued peaceful transfers of power and the absence of organised armed mobilisation would support the minimal classification.
Strategic reasoning
- Cape Verde’s post-1975 record of domestic peace and the absence of civil war, insurgency, or coup violence provide strong long-run protection against a new conflict onset.
- Stable institutions and the lack of an identified domestic, neighbouring, or external armed actor reduce escalation pathways, while any future violence would need to overcome substantial political and security barriers.
- Cape Verdean involvement in security activity abroad, if any, would not itself constitute conflict onset on Cape Verdean territory; the relevant risk is a new armed confrontation at home.
Critical indicators
- Since independence in 1975, Cape Verde has avoided civil war, insurgency, and interstate attack on its territory, a country-level record that supports the current minimal risk assessment.
- As of 1 September 2026, no specific dated development in the reviewed reporting identifies armed mobilisation, a military rupture, or an external attack directed at Cape Verdean territory.
Probability trend
How the Cape Verde estimate has moved
Probability0.3%0.3%0.3%
Aug 26
Aug 31
Sep 1
Date
Regional context
Cape Verde compared with its neighbours and region
Cape Verde ranks number 151 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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