South Korea

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in South Korea is 0.6%, a minimal risk. The country’s strong institutions, advanced economy, capable armed forces, and durable US alliance provide substantial deterrence. The principal long-run danger is the unresolved Korean War and North Korea’s history of military provocations, including attacks and crises that have repeatedly brought the peninsula close to escalation.

Recent reporting shows sharper debate over alliance reliability and deterrence. A late-August survey found 65.0% of South Koreans supported developing nuclear weapons, while President Trump criticised Seoul for declining assistance in the Iran war. Planned US-Japan-South Korea exercises from September 7 may draw a strong North Korean response, while the reported scaling-back of Ulchi Freedom Shield has added uncertainty around readiness and signalling.

The largest uncertainty is whether alliance friction and military exercises produce a sustained confrontation with North Korea rather than calibrated pressure. Risk would rise most clearly after a North Korean attack, prolonged exchange of fire, or mobilisation indicating preparations for operations on South Korean territory; renewed direct talks, reliable US security assurances, and restraint around exercises would lower the immediate danger.