North Korea

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in North Korea is 2.9%, a low risk. The country’s history of interstate war, highly militarised authoritarian rule, unresolved confrontation with South Korea, and nuclear and missile capabilities sustain a meaningful possibility of escalation, despite strong regime control and the absence of an ongoing internal armed conflict.

Recent reporting shows several pressure points: Pyongyang replaced Defence Minister No Kwang Chol with Kim Song-gi and brought veteran strategist Pak Jong-chon back into a senior military role on August 30. North Korea has also reaffirmed that it will strengthen its nuclear forces while accusing Washington of hostility. Against this, Seoul’s spy agency says a North Korea-US summit remains possible, and London’s diplomatic dispute has remained confined to sanctions and mission downgrading.

The main uncertainty is whether military reshuffling and nuclear rhetoric are intended chiefly for deterrence, internal control, or preparation for coercive action. A sustained increase in tests, mobilisation, or lethal incidents involving South Korean, US, or North Korean forces would raise risk; renewed high-level diplomacy and restraint around the peninsula would lower it. Polymarket places a 3.5% chance on a North Korean invasion of South Korea before 2027.