Australia

The 12-month probability is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. Australia’s strong institutions, high economic capacity, effective security services, geographic isolation, and absence of recent civil war or insurgency support this very low level. Domestic political disputes generally remain within constitutional and legal channels.

Recent reporting is not centred on armed conflict in Australia. Coverage on 1 September concerns the death of Australian Michael Keats in Nepal floods, Pauline Hanson’s accusation that Anthony Albanese incited violence against her, and wider US-Iran tensions. These developments involve overseas events or political rhetoric, not sustained armed violence on Australian territory.

The main uncertainty is whether an exceptional shock could produce organised domestic violence or an external attack reaching Australia. Risk would rise with a sustained armed mobilisation by a domestic group, a serious attack inside Australia, or direct military escalation affecting Australian territory; it would remain lower if political disputes continue to be managed through institutions and Australia stays physically outside overseas wars.