New Zealand

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in New Zealand is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. New Zealand has strong democratic institutions, high state capacity, effective security services, geographic isolation, and no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coup, or sustained political violence. These factors provide substantial protection against both domestic conflict and invasion.

Recent reporting is focused on ordinary political debate, including ACT’s proposed physical-presence requirements for permanent residents if elected, with exemptions for military personnel and other groups. Coverage of the South Africa–New Zealand rugby Test in Cape Town concerns overseas sporting activity, not violence on New Zealand territory. No prediction market was found for New Zealand.

The main uncertainty is whether an isolated extremist attack, serious political rupture, or an external crisis could overcome the country’s strong institutions and social stability. Risk would rise most clearly with organised, sustained armed violence between domestic actors or a confirmed armed attack reaching New Zealand; continued peaceful political competition and effective law enforcement would support the minimal level.