Tonga

Tonga’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. The country has no recent record of civil war, insurgency, or interstate fighting on its territory, while its small population, geographic isolation, and generally cohesive political order reduce the capacity and opportunity for sustained armed violence.

Recent reporting provides no indication of organised armed mobilisation, foreign territorial pressure, or escalating confrontation involving Tongan state institutions. Tonga’s principal security relationships, including with New Zealand and Australia, are more likely to support stability than generate interstate risk; no prediction market is available.

The largest uncertainty is whether an unexpected political crisis, communal confrontation, or external dispute could overcome these strong safeguards. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained armed clashes in Nuku’alofa or elsewhere, mobilisation of organised domestic groups, or a credible foreign military threat; continued institutional stability and peaceful dispute resolution would support the current minimal level.